https://www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/papers/ecolmod.pdf

Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions

Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Statistical method for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis by DNA polymorphism.

https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/2901670/267479.pdf

Quality criteria were proposed for measurement properties of health status questionnaires

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

/pdf/the-global-distribution-and-burden-of-dengue-4d1crnic4u.pdf

The global distribution and burden of dengue

In recent years, predictive modelling of plant species’ distribution has been shown to be a powerful method for obtaining preliminary assessments of potential ecological impact of rapid climatic change (e.g. Brzeziecki et al. 1995; Kienast et al. 1996; Saetersdal and Birks 1997; Iverson and Prasad 1998; Lischke et al. 1998; Gottfried et al. 1999; Guisan and Theurillat 2000; 2001; Bakkenes et al. 2002). Such models give static results: they reveal where suitable species’ habitats might be located in a climatically changed future, but they do not explicitly consider all the processes leading to the predicted changes. A basic assumption behind their application is thus to consider present and future distributions of species to be in equilibrium, or at least in pseudo-equilibrium, with their environment (Guisan and Theurillat 2000). Although this assumption obviously does not hold in all ecological situations, scenarios obtained from these models nevertheless constitute an interesting spatially-explicit and quantitative basis for discussing how climate change might impact plant distribution. Examples of such discussions are provided in the next section.

Monitoring Networks for Testing Model-Based Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on Mountain Plant Distribution

Environmental Predictors: Issues of Processing and Selection

Mapping habitats sensitive to overgrazing in the Swiss Northern Alps using habitat suitability modeling

.-VON DANIKEN I., GUISAN A. & LANE S., 2014. RechAlp.vd. A new support platform
for transdisciplinary research in the Alpine region of the Vaud Canton. Bulletin de la Societe vaudoise
des Sciences naturelles 94.2: 175-178.
The RechAlp.vd project, which began in July 2013, is the outcome of the wish of the Faculty of
Geosciences and the Environment at the University of Lausanne to create a priority study area in the
Alps of Canton de Vaud. The project aims to develop a support platform that encourages and maintains
interdisciplinary research in the Alps of Vaud. An online geo-database storing and retrieving what
data and metadata exist on datasets, projects and activities in the study area is available since July
2014. A portal is homed on the UNIL's website at URL: http://rechalpvd.unil.ch and to date contains
more than 3840 metadata in the fields of natural sciences. The promotion and the introduction of the
project are currently in progress. It is now possible using the RechAlp.vd portal to do the inventory
of the data linked to the Alps of Vaud, to identify geographic or environmental gaps in the existing
information and to design complementary data sampling strategies. In this regard, RechAlp.vd should
open new scientific perspectives for research and teaching, especially in transdisciplinary fields of
natural sciences.

RechAlp.vd - Une nouvelle plateforme UNIL de support pour la recherche transdisciplinaire dans les Alpes vaudoises

Epiphytes typically exhibit clustered distribution patterns, but predicting the spatial variation of their distribution at fine scales has long been a challenge. Taking advantage of a canopy crane giving access to 1.1 ha of lowland seasonal rainforest in Yunnan (China), we assess here which factors promote the probability that a given tree hosts epiphytes, and the variation of species richness and abundance of epiphytic spermatophytes and ferns among trees. Variation in epiphyte species richness as a function of host tree size, characteristics of its surrounding environment, topography and microclimatic conditions, were analyzed by Random Forest. Epiphytic spermatophytes and ferns occupied 2.3 and 10.8% of the available host trees, respectively. Significant models predicting which trees are more likely to host epiphytes than others were obtained, indicating that host tree characteristics and their local environment play a significant role in determining which host tree is most likely to be colonized. These models, as well as models for species richness and abundance, however, exhibited a moderate to low accuracy (r2 0.28 and 0.24 and of 0.12 and 0.14 for spermatophyte and fern richness and abundance, respectively). The best predictor of the presence of epiphytes on a tree, of its epiphytic species richness and abundance, was its DBH. In ferns, however, two peaks of species richness were observed, representing shade-loving ferns on small trees and sun-loving ferns on large trees. Microclimatic conditions and light intensity were the second best factor accounting for variation in species richness and abundance among trees. The contribution of liana infestation, host tree identity, and characteristics of neighboring trees were marginal. Our inclusion of a large number of host-tree characteristics and their local environment did not allow for an apparent improvement of model accuracy over studies with a more limited number of predictors, pointing to the role of chance upon tree colonization. Our results confirm the utmost importance of large trees with emergent canopies for the conservation of the epiphytic flora, but also indicate that epiphytic diversity assessments in tropical forests must also include small understorey trees, which should be further considered for conservation. The importance of the micro-climatic conditions that prevail at the level of each individual host tree further points to the necessity of maintaining a buffer zone around large host trees targeted for conservation.

/pdf/what-makes-a-good-phorophyte-predicting-occupancy-species-21la0z8n.pdf

What makes a good phorophyte? Predicting occupancy, species richness and abundance of vascular epiphytes in a lowland seasonal tropical forest

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