Quantification of asymptomatic infections is fundamental for effective public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies regarding the extent of asymptomaticity have arisen from inconsistent terminology as well as conflation of index and secondary cases which biases toward lower asymptomaticity. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and World Health Organization Global Research Database on COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and April 2, 2021 to identify studies that reported silent infections at the time of testing, whether presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Index cases were removed to minimize representational bias that would result in overestimation of symptomaticity. By analyzing over 350 studies, we estimate that the percentage of infections that never developed clinical symptoms, and thus were truly asymptomatic, was 35.1% (95% CI: 30.7 to 39.9%). At the time of testing, 42.8% (95% prediction interval: 5.2 to 91.1%) of cases exhibited no symptoms, a group comprising both asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/34/e2109229118.full.pdf

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

This systematic reviewe and meta-analysis evaluates household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/articlepdf/2791601/madewell_2022_oi_220282_1650462141.35109.pdf

Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status

Scientists across disciplines, policymakers, and journalists have voiced frustration at the unprecedented polarization and misinformation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several false dichotomies have been used to polarize debates while oversimplifying complex issues. In this comprehensive narrative review, we deconstruct six common COVID-19 false dichotomies, address the evidence on these topics, identify insights relevant to effective pandemic responses, and highlight knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The topics of this review are: 1) Health and lives vs. economy and livelihoods, 2) Indefinite lockdown vs. unlimited reopening, 3) Symptomatic vs. asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, 4) Droplet vs. aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, 5) Masks for all vs. no masking, and 6) SARS-CoV-2 reinfection vs. no reinfection. We discuss the importance of multidisciplinary integration (health, social, and physical sciences), multilayered approaches to reducing risk (“Emmentaler cheese model”), harm reduction, smart masking, relaxation of interventions, and context-sensitive policymaking for COVID-19 response plans. We also address the challenges in understanding the broad clinical presentation of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. These key issues of science and public health policy have been presented as false dichotomies during the pandemic. However, they are hardly binary, simple, or uniform, and therefore should not be framed as polar extremes. We urge a nuanced understanding of the science and caution against black-or-white messaging, all-or-nothing guidance, and one-size-fits-all approaches. There is a need for meaningful public health communication and science-informed policies that recognize shades of gray, uncertainties, local context, and social determinants of health.

/pdf/covid-19-false-dichotomies-and-a-comprehensive-review-of-the-1r5anrb6eo.pdf

COVID-19 false dichotomies and a comprehensive review of the evidence regarding public health, COVID-19 symptomatology, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, mask wearing, and reinfection.

Importance As a result of low numbers of pediatric cases early in the COVID-19 pandemic, pediatric household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains an understudied topic. Objective To determine whether there are differences in the odds of household transmission by younger children compared with older children. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based cohort study took place between June 1 and December 31, 2020, in Ontario, Canada. Private households in which the index case individual of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was younger than 18 years were included. Individuals were excluded if they resided in apartments missing suite information, in households with multiple index cases, or in households where the age of the index case individual was missing. Exposures Age group of pediatric index cases categorized as 0 to 3, 4 to 8, 9 to 13, and 14 to 17 years. Main Outcomes and Measures Household transmission, defined as households where at least 1 secondary case occurred 1 to 14 days after the pediatric index case. Results A total of 6280 households had pediatric index cases, and 1717 households (27.3%) experienced secondary transmission. The mean (SD) age of pediatric index case individuals was 10.7 (5.1) years and 2863 (45.6%) were female individuals. Children aged 0 to 3 years had the highest odds of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts compared with children aged 14 to 17 years (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.17-1.75). This association was similarly observed in sensitivity analyses defining secondary cases as 2 to 14 days or 4 to 14 days after the index case and stratified analyses by presence of symptoms, association with a school/childcare outbreak, or school/childcare reopening. Children aged 4 to 8 years and 9 to 13 years also had increased odds of transmission (aged 4-8 years: odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67; aged 9-13 years: odds ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.97-1.32). Conclusions and Relevance This study suggests that younger children may be more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with older children, and the highest odds of transmission was observed for children aged 0 to 3 years. Differential infectivity of pediatric age groups has implications for infection prevention within households, as well as schools/childcare, to minimize risk of household secondary transmission. Additional population-based studies are required to establish the risk of transmission by younger pediatric index cases.

/pdf/association-of-age-and-pediatric-household-transmission-of-29m42y0vuu.pdf

Association of Age and Pediatric Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

We previously reported a household secondary attack rate (SAR) for SARS-CoV-2 of 18.9% through June 17, 2021. To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, we searched PubMed from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness based on the transmission probability for susceptibility (VE_S,p), infectiousness (VE_I,p), and total vaccine effectiveness (VE_T,p). Household SAR for 27 studies with midpoints in 2021 was 35.8% (95%CI, 30.6%-41.3%), compared to 15.7% (95%CI, 13.3%-18.4%) for 62 studies with midpoints through April 2020. Household SARs were 38.0% (95%CI, 36.0%-40.0%), 30.8% (95%CI, 23.5%-39.3%), and 22.5% (95%CI, 18.6%-26.8%) for Alpha, Delta, and Beta, respectively. VE_I,p, VE_S,p, and VE_T,p were 56.6% (95%CI, 28.7%-73.6%), 70.3% (95%CI, 59.3%-78.4%), and 86.8% (95%CI, 76.7%-92.5%) for full vaccination, and 27.5% (95%CI, -6.4%-50.7%), 43.9% (95%CI, 21.8%-59.7%), and 59.9% (95%CI, 34.4%-75.5%) for partial vaccination, respectively. Household contacts exposed to Alpha or Delta are at increased risk of infection compared to the original wild-type strain. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection and transmission to others.

/pdf/household-secondary-attack-rates-of-sars-cov-2-by-variant-1ie3hp21.pdf

Household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The role of children in household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains uncertain. Here, we describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children with COVID-19 in Catalonia (Spain) and investigate the dynamics of household transmission. METHODS: Prospective, observational, multicenter study performed during summer and school periods (1 July-31 October, 2020), in which epidemiological and clinical features, and viral transmission dynamics were analyzed in COVID-19 patients <16 years. A pediatric index case was established when a child was the first individual infected within a household. Secondary cases were defined when another household member tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 before the child. The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated, and logistic regression was used to assess associations between transmission risk factors and SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: The study included 1040 COVID-19 patients <16 years. Almost half (47.2%) were asymptomatic, 10.8% had comorbidities, and 2.6% required hospitalization. No deaths were reported. Viral transmission was common among household members (62.3%). More than 70% (756/1040) of pediatric cases were secondary to an adult, whereas 7.7% (80/1040) were index cases. The SAR was significantly lower in households with COVID-19 pediatric index cases during the school period relative to summer (p=0.02), and when compared to adults (p=0.006). No individual or environmental risk factors associated with the SAR were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Children are unlikely to cause household COVID-19 clusters or be major drivers of the pandemic even if attending school. Interventions aimed at children are expected to have a small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Household Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission and Children: A Network Prospective Study.

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Household Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission and Children: A Network Prospective Study.