In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

/pdf/the-precariat-the-new-dangerous-class-3tq7b7h7fg.pdf

The Precariat. The New Dangerous Class

Preface Introduction: The Decline of Confidence in Government Joseph S. Nye, Jr. PART ONE: The Scope and Performance of Government The Evolving Scope of Government Ernest R. May Measuring the Performance of Government Derek Bok Fall from Grace: The Public's Loss of Faith in Government Gary Orren PART TWO: The Menu of Explanations Is It Really the Economy Stupid? Robert Z. Lawrence Social and Cultural Causes of Dissatisfaction with U.S. Government Jane Manbridge The Polarization of American Parties and Mistrust of Government David C. King The Politics of Mistrust Richard E. Neustadt PART THREE: Data on Public Attitudes toward Governance Changing Attitudes in America Robert J. Blendon, John M. Benson, Richard Morin, Drew E. Altman, Mollyann Brodie, Mario Brossard, And Matt James Postmaterialist Values and the Erosion of Institutional Authority Ronald Inglehart Public Trust and Democracy in Japan Susan J. Pharr Conclusion: Reflections, Conjectures, and Puzzles Joseph S. Nye, Jr., and Philip D. Zelikow Notes Contributors Index

Why people don't trust government

Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism. By Marc J. Hetherington. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004. 208p. $35.00.Fifteen years after the signing of the Social Security Act, this already broad government program was expanded. With the amendments of 1950, an additional 10 million additional people were covered, including some of the poorest—domestic and agricultural workers. By using the payroll tax to support Social Security payments, citizens saw the program as one to which they contributed and from which they should receive. Even in very different times 55 years later, Americans continued to support this approach to public pensions. Despite comparatively low levels of trust in government and decades of antitax and antigovernment movement successes, President George W. Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security fell flat.

Why Trust Matters: Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberalism

Job insecurity: An integrative review and agenda for future research.

Extant research demonstrates that citizens’ evaluations of national economic performance play an important role in determining trust in politicians and political institutions, whereas evaluations of their own economic situation play a lesser or even negligible role. Utilizing American National Election Studies data and more apposite measures of personal economic privation during an age of globalization and de-industrialization, this article finds that the extent to which citizens perceive themselves and their families to be economically insecure has a statistically significant and substantial negative effect on political trust. Indeed, the effect at least matches those of macro-economic evaluations and party identification. This article therefore adds a new dimension to our understanding of the economy–trust nexus and contributes to the small but growing body of scholarship on insecurity’s effects on political behavior.

/pdf/economic-insecurity-and-political-trust-in-the-united-states-1qlgg5agh1.pdf

Economic Insecurity and Political Trust in the United States

The Republican Party and immigration politics

Scholars generally agree that most congressional decision-making behaviour has become characterized by partisan polarization. One area to which this consensus does not extend, however, is decision-making on foreign and national security issues. While a majority of scholars believe congressional foreign policy voting is now polarized, others insist that bipartisanship remains the norm. Examining roll-call votes in the House of Representatives from 1970 to 2012, this paper brings three new elements to bear on the dispute. Using a more comprehensive range of indicators, we re-examine the longitudinal data previously presented by scholars; we add an analysis of the roll-call data for the 2004–2013 period, and we utilize a static measure of polarization. Our analysis of the data reveals a cyclical trend of increasing and decreasing polarization and we conclude that it is too simplistic to characterize congressional voting on foreign and national security issues since 1970 as either partisan or bipartisan.

/pdf/partisan-polarization-and-us-foreign-policy-is-the-centre-mx7nruf1wr.pdf

Partisan polarization and US foreign policy: Is the centre dead or holding?

The presidency of Donald J. Trump is rather ordinary. Trump himself may be the most unusual, unorthodox and unconventional president the US has ever had. Yet, even with his extraordinary personality and approach to the job, his presidency is proving quite ordinary in its accomplishments and outcomes, both at home and abroad. Like most modern US presidents, the number and scope of Trump’s achievements are rather meager. Despite dramatic claims to a revolution in US politics, Trump simply has not achieved very much. Trump’s few policy achievements are also mostly mainstream Republican ones rather than the radical, anti-establishment, swamp-draining changes promised on the campaign trail. The populist insurgent who ran against Washington has followed a policy agenda largely in tune with conservative Republican traditions. The Ordinary Presidency of Donald J. Trump provides a detailed explanation for the discrepancy between Trump’s extraordinary approach and the relative mediocrity of his achievements. Ironically, it is precisely Trump’s extraordinariness as president that has helped render his presidency ordinary.

The Ordinary Presidency of Donald J. Trump

Rather than operating as leader of the executive branch, Trump has personalized his presidency to serve his strategy of communicating with the base. This modus operandi centralizes power with Trump personally as his tweets and public statements intervene in all processes of governance as and when he wants. The office of the presidency is a phenomenally useful institution designed to support the president, but by refusing to see himself as part of that institution, Trump has failed to commit the time and effort to making sure that its processes run effectively. Those processes include policy planning, liaising with interest groups and Congress, running an effective communications strategy—the means to get things done in Washington. With careful management, the president can use the office of the presidency to maximize his impact on other players. Trump has been offered the levers of power, but he ignores them. Instead, he tweets a flow of poorly considered statements from the Oval Office, damages his capacity to lead as he shifts the agenda, and actively sabotages his White House’s efforts. His failure to oversee the appointments process, another vital managerial task that his personalized approach has compromised, has installed a substantial traditional Republican resistance within the White House, creating a chaotic fight over the very nature of the Trump presidency on his own doorstep. His unusual conduct as president means that he is less able to lead Washington.

Trump in the White House

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