Since 1980, more than 175 scholarly articles, chapters, or books have been published about the post-reform presidential nomination system. Numer ous authors investigate primary rules, media coverage, candidates, voters, or momentum. Less well covered are the subjects of interest groups, win nowing of candidates, campaign contributors, and connections to other phases of the presidency Research on presidential nominations has to con tend with an ever-changing environment as rules change, candidates exit the contests, and the primary season progresses from February through June. This environmental complexity adds to the challenge of investigating the first phase of the presidential selection process. Coupling this environ mental complexity with a lack of consensus among scholars on measure ment, model building, and theory leads to contradictory findings in a number of areas. Nevertheless, much has been learned about the patterns of presidential nominations.

Presidential Nomination Politics in the Post-Reform Era:

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate-selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state-visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state’s delegateallocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long-shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate’s access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state’s delegate-allocation method influences candidates’ resource-allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate-allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.

Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Grounded in experience in 2020, both major political parties have reasons to expand use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in their 2024 presidential primaries. RCV may offer a ‘win-win’ solution benefiting both the parties and their voters. RCV would build on both the pre-1968 American tradition of parties determining a coalitional presidential nominee through multiple ballots at party conventions and the modern practice of allowing voters to effectively choose their nominees in primaries. Increasingly used by parties around the world in picking their leaders, RCV may allow voters to crowd-source a coalitional nominee. Most published research about RCV focuses on state and local elections. In contrast, this article analyzes the impact on voters, candidates, and parties from five state Democratic parties using RCV in party-run presidential nomination contests in 2020. First, it uses polls and results to examine how more widespread use of RCV might have affected the trajectory of contests for the 2016 Republican nomination. Second, it contrasts how more than three million voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries backed withdrawn candidates with the low rate of such wasted votes for withdrawn candidates in the states with RCV ballots. Finally, it concludes with an examination of how RCV might best interact with the parties’ current rules and potential changes to those rules.

/pdf/lessons-from-the-use-of-ranked-choice-voting-in-american-1ol2nvd9sd.pdf

Lessons from the Use of Ranked Choice Voting in American Presidential Primaries

The Politics of Presidential Selection

Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.colby.edu/honorstheses Part of the American Politics Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Colby College theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed or downloaded from this site for the purposes of research and scholarship. Reproduction or distribution for commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the author.

/pdf/the-lunatic-fringe-barry-goldwater-and-the-conservative-5fu5lao0nh.pdf

The “Lunatic Fringe” -- Barry Goldwater and the Conservative Revolution of the 1960s --

Proponents of post-1968 reforms in the presidential nominating process commonly defend them by claiming that the old "mixed" system was undemocratic and closed to popular movements. Only a few years before, however, Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona had led a conservative takeover of the Republican Party that showed the mixed system could accommodate the rise of a popular movement. This article examines whether the mixed system helped or hindered the Goldwater candidacy. The author concludes that the mixed system was more open to popular movements than has often been assumed and, ironically, that the reformed system, by distancing the party from the nominating process, may have made it more difficult for movements to win and consolidate their position.

In Defense of the "Mixed" System: The Goldwater Campaign & the Role of Popular Movements in the Pre-Reform Presidential Nomination Process

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In Defense of the "Mixed" System: The Goldwater Campaign & the Role of Popular Movements in the Pre-Reform Presidential Nomination Process