Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions about Dividends and Debt

The emergence of software-based platforms is shifting competition toward platform-centric ecosystems, although this phenomenon has not received much attention in information systems research. Our premise is that the coevolution of the design, governance, and environmental dynamics of such ecosystems influences how they evolve. We present a framework for understanding platform-based ecosystems and discuss five broad research questions that present significant research opportunities for contributing homegrown theory about their evolutionary dynamics to the information systems discipline and distinctive information technology-artifact-centric contributions to the strategy, economics, and software engineering reference disciplines.

Research Commentary---Platform Evolution: Coevolution of Platform Architecture, Governance, and Environmental Dynamics

https://www.lef.wiwi.uni-due.de/fileadmin/fileupload/BWL-LEF/Seminarreihe/RWeron14_Essen.pdf

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims at explaining the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and treats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of the outperformance of one model by another.

Prosumers are agents that both consume and produce energy. With the growth in small and medium-sized agents using solar photovoltaic panels, smart meters, vehicle-to-grid electric automobiles, home batteries and other ‘smart’ devices, prosuming offers the potential for consumers and vehicle owners to re-evaluate their energy practices. As the number of prosumers increases, the electric utility sector of today is likely to undergo significant changes over the coming decades, offering possibilities for greening of the system, but also bringing many unknowns and risks that need to be identified and managed. To develop strategies for the future, policymakers and planners need knowledge of how prosumers could be integrated effectively and efficiently into competitive electricity markets. Here we identify and discuss three promising potential prosumer markets related to prosumer grid integration, peer-to-peer models and prosumer community groups. We also caution against optimism by laying out a series of caveats and complexities.

/pdf/electricity-market-design-for-the-prosumer-era-32fg272x6c.pdf

Electricity market design for the prosumer era

We develop a model that endogenizes dynamic financing, investment, and cash retention/payout policies in order to analyze the effect of financial flexibility on firm value. We show that the value of financing flexibility depends on the costs of external financing, the level of corporate and personal tax rates that determine the effective cost of holding cash, the firm's growth potential and maturity, and the reversibility of capital. Through simulations, we demonstrate that firms facing financing frictions should simultaneously borrow and lend, and we examine the nature of dynamic debt and liquidity policies and the value associated with corporate liquidity.

The Value of Financial Flexibility

We develop a model that endogenizes dynamic financing, investment, and cash retention/payout policies in order to analyze the effect of financial flexibility on firm value. We show that the value of financing flexibility depends on the costs of external financing, the level of corporate and personal tax rates which determine the effective cost of holding cash, the firm's growth potential and its maturity, and the reversibility of capital. Through simulations, we demonstrate that firms that face financing frictions should simultaneously borrow and lend, and we examine the nature of the dynamic debt and liquidity policies and the value associated with corporate liquidity.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID997885_code327209.pdf?abstractid=677086

The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices

In recent years, Germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources, which is mainly due to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG). The EEG substantially impacts the dynamics of intra-day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices. In this paper, we present a non-Gaussian process to model German intra-day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model. Most importantly, our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes. A simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1944790_code327209.pdf?abstractid=1839208&type=2

The Case of Negative Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

This paper studies the quantitative impact of microprudential bank regulations on bank lending and value metrics of efficiency and welfare in a dynamic model of banks that are financed by debt and equity, undertake maturity transformation, are exposed to credit and liquidity risks, and face financing frictions. We show that (1) there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between bank lending, welfare, and capital requirements, (2) liquidity requirements unambiguously reduce lending, efficiency, and welfare, and (3) resolution policies contingent on observed capital, such as prompt corrective action, dominate in efficiency and welfare terms (noncontingent) capital and liquidity requirements.

Microprudential regulation in a dynamic model of banking

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Papers

The Value of Financial Flexibility

The Value of Financial Flexibility

The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices

The Case of Negative Day-Ahead Electricity Prices

Microprudential regulation in a dynamic model of banking