Hazard map of El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, México: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations

We present Titan2D simulations of two well-characterized block-and-ash flow (BAF) events of the 2006 eruption of Merapi (Java, Indonesia) that affected the Gendol valley on the volcano’s southern flank and adjacent, densely populated interfluve (non-valley) areas: (1) a single dome-collapse event to the south that generated one of the smaller, post-June 14 flows and (2) a sustained, multiple dome-collapse event, also directed to the south, that produced the largest flows of the 2006 eruption emplaced in the afternoon of June 14. Using spatially varying bed friction angles, Titan2D is capable of reproducing the paths, velocities, runout distance, areas covered and deposited volumes of these flows over highly complex topography. The model results provide the basis for estimating the areas and levels of hazards associated with BAFs generated during relatively short as well as prolonged dome-collapse periods and guidance during future eruptive crises at Merapi.

https://www.earthobservatory.sg/files/publications/pdf/Charbonnier_BulVolc_2009.pdf

Numerical simulations of block-and-ash flows using the Titan2D flow model: examples from the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia

TITAN2D, VolcFlow, LAHARZ, and ∆H/L or energy cone models each employ different rheologies or empirical relationships and therefore differ in appropriateness of application for different types of mass flows and topographic environments. Previous work has focused on single-deposit comparisons of models. In this work, these models are used to recreate the inundation areas of the dense-basal undercurrent of all 13 mapped, land-confined, Soufriere Hills Volcano dome-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) emplaced from 1996-2010 to test the relative effectiveness of different computational models. Best-fit model results and their input parameters are compared with results using observation- and deposit-derived input parameters and those using empirically-derived input parameters from the FlowDat global database (Ogburn, 2012, 2014; Ogburn et al. 2016). Not only does this work provide a useful comparison of the operational aspects and behavior of various models, but it also enriches conceptual understanding of the dynamics of the PDCs themselves. Results indicate that TITAN2D is able to reproduce inundated areas well using flux sources, although velocities are often unrealistically high. VolcFlow is also able to replicate flow runout well, but does not capture the lateral spreading in distal regions of larger-volume flows. Both models are better at reproducing the inundated area of single-pulse, valley-confined, smaller-volume flows than sustained, highly unsteady, larger-volume flows, which are often partially unchannelized. LAHARZ is fast to run and can give a rough approximation of inundation, but there are problems with deriving the equation coefficients for PDCs and the designation of starting locations. The ∆H/L cone model is also very quick to run and gives reasonable approximations of runout distance, but does not inherently model flow channelization or directionality and thus unrealistically covers all interfluves.

The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions

Predicting the block-and-ash flow inundation areas at Volcán de Colima (Colima, Mexico) based on the present day (February 2010) status

[2] Determining the risk associated with hazards involves many factors; examining strategies for mitigation is, likewise, a complicated problem. It is increasingly common to turn to models and computer simulation to assist in the risk assessment and mitigation process. In studying hazardous natural flows with models and simulations, we seek answers to questions such as ‘‘Is a particular village likely to be affected by flows in a given time frame? Should we construct a road along this valley or along a different one?’’ The answer to such a question in full generality requires an accounting of the uncertainties in the frequency and magnitude of likely flow events. Then, given the occurrence of a flow of some specified size, we also require measurable confidence in the prediction of the flow physics by a computational model. However, for most models such predictions of flow physics are difficult to obtain in absolute terms due to the uncertainties associated with assumed values of model inputs, parameters, and, oftentimes, with the model itself (details of the parametric and model

Input Uncertainty Propagation Methods and Hazard Mapping of Geophysical Mass Flows

Computational modeling of the 1991 block and ash flows at Colima Volcano, México

When characterizing geologic natural hazards, specifically granular flows including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and debris flows, perhaps the most important factor to consider is the area of inundation. One of the key parameters demarcating the leading edge of inundation is the run-out distance. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when the flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of the Savage-Hutter theory for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The stopping criterion is a function of dimensionless average velocity, pile aspect ratio and internal and bed friction angle and can be implemented on either a global (entire flow) or local (small areas of the flow) level. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface, and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Mountainous areas, such as Colima volcano, Mexico; Casita, Nicaragua; Little Tahoma Peak, USA, and the San Bernardino Mountains, USA, were used as test regions. These areas have combinations of steep, open slopes and sinuous channels. Because of differences in topography and physical scaling, slumping piles in the laboratory and geophysical flows in natural terrain must be scaled differently to determine a reasonable dimensionless relationship for the stopping criterion.

Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory

Granular Flow Experiments for Validation of Numerical Flow Models

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Computational modeling of the 1991 block and ash flows at Colima Volcano, México

Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory

Granular Flow Experiments for Validation of Numerical Flow Models