世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Contrasting treatment‐specific survival using double‐robust estimators

Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in analysing the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest that expansionary US monetary policy shocks drive up the broad commodity price index and all of its components. While these effects are significant, they do not, however, appear to be overwhelmingly large. This finding is confirmed under different identification strategies for the monetary policy shock.

/pdf/the-impact-of-monetary-policy-shocks-on-commodity-prices-92legg3ipp.pdf

The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices

China's Great Economic Transformation, edited by Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008. xxii + 906 pp. £80.00/US$175.00 (hardcover), £40.00/US$70.00 (paperback), US$60.00 (eBook). Last year's news is older for China's economy than for that of most countries. Any book that aims to sum up "China's great economic transformation" must find itself in a losing race with history, as China's economy barrels along year after year while transforming itself continuously along many dimensions. Despite this generic and unavoidable problem, China 's Great Economic Transformation is a fine, comprehensive set of discussions of China's economy from the late 1970s, when the reform period began, until around 2006. This is a big book of some 900 pages. A long list of distinguished people has contributed to it. There are chapters on China as a transition economy (Jan Svejnar), the political economy of China's transition (Barry Naughton), the demographic aspect of the transition (Wang Feng and Andrew Mason), the labor market (Fang Cai, Albert Park, Yaohui Zhao), education (Emily Hannum, Jere Behrman, Meiyan Wang, Jihong Liu), environmental issues (James Roumasset, Kimberly Burnett, Hua Wang), science and technology (Albert G. Z. Hu, Gary Jefferson), private sector development (Stephen Haggard and Yasheng Huang), the role of law (Donald Clarke, Peter Murrell, Susan Whiting), the fiscal system (Christine Wong and Richard Bird), agriculture (Jikun Huang, Keijiro Otsuka, Scott Rozelle), the financial system (Franklin Allen, Jun Qian, Meijun Qian), industry (Brandt, Rawski and John Sutton), China and globalization (Lee Branstetter and Nicholas Lardy), growth and structural change (Brandt, Chang-tai Hsieh, Xiaodong Zhu), income inequality (Dwayne Benjamin, Brandt, John Giles and Sangui Wang), spatial dimensions of China's development (Kam Wing Chan, J. Vernon Henderson, Kai Yuen Tsui), and forecasting China's future growth (Dwight Perkins and Rawski). A comprehensive list, indeed, and one that usefully extends the realm of the economic to embrace related areas, such as law, the environment, science and technology, and demography, that undoubtedly interact with economic development and transformation. Moreover, the chapters in this book are not quick summaries but rather lengthy and carefully thought out discussions, often containing new information, new insights or new analytic approaches to their topics. What is left out? It would have been nice to include something more about the impact of political reform (or its absence) upon China's development (touched on briefly, for example, in Naughton' s chapter and that by Perkins and Rawski); the intersection between human rights and the economy (Clarke, Murrell and Whiting's chapter deals mainly with contracts, property rights and other aspects of law more directly related to economics); and the important elements of continuity - not just radical change - between the pre- and post-reform periods. …

China's Great Economic Transformation

Both empirical and theoretical literature show that multinational firms exhibit a competitive advantage before investing abroad. However, there are no clear empirical results regarding the ex post effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on firm performance, partially due to the inadequacy of available firm-level data. We build a brand new firm-level dataset able both to represent the extent of Italian firms’ foreign activity and to provide reliable measures of key performance indicators, especially total factor productivity (TFP) and employment. We then use a propensity score matching procedure to analyze the causal relationship between FDI and firm performance. Firms investing abroad for the very first time, especially in advanced economies, show higher productivity and employment dynamics in the years following the investment: the average positive effect on TFP is driven by new multinationals operating in specialized and high-tech sectors, while the positive employment gains are explained by an increase of the white collar component. On average there are no negative effects on the parent firm’s blue collar component.

/pdf/foreign-direct-investment-and-firm-performance-an-empirical-4kuqyoqh2o.pdf

Foreign direct investment and firm performance: an empirical analysis of Italian firms

The spread of global value chains (GVCs) has given rise to new statistical tools, the Inter-Country Input-Output tables and new analytical frameworks aimed at properly identifying production linkages between and within economies. However, several important questions remain unaddressed. This paper proposes a new toolkit for value-added accounting of trade flows at the aggregate, bilateral, and sectoral levels that can be used to investigate a broad set of empirical questions -- including an assessment of the share of trade related to GVCs. The paper shows how different empirical issues require distinct accounting perspectives, and maps these methodologies onto the economic questions they are best suited to address. In this way, in addition to providing novel tools, the paper brings a large part of the related literature under one comprehensive framework.

Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains and Value-Added Trade

Both empirical and theoretical literature show that multinational firms exhibit a competitive advantage before investing abroad. However, there are no clear empirical results regarding the ex-post effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on firm performance, partially due to the inadequacy of available firm-level data. We build a brand new firm-level dataset able both to represent the extent of Italian firms' foreign activity and to provide reliable measures of key performance indicators, especially total factor productivity (TFP) and employment. We then use a propensity score matching procedure to analyze the causal relationship between FDI and firm performance. Firms investing abroad for the very first time, especially in advanced economies, show higher productivity and employment dynamics in the years following the investment: the average positive effect on TFP is driven by new multinationals operating in specialized and high-tech sectors, while the positive employment gains are explained by an increase of the white collar component. On average there are no negative effects on the parent firm's blue collar component.

/pdf/foreign-direct-investment-and-firm-performance-an-empirical-2vq64gxmq9.pdf

Foreign Direct Investment and Firm Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Italian Firms

This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index investments (swap dealers) have gained importance since the mid-2000s. However, traditional financial market participants (money managers) still show the stronger (simultaneous) correlation with price movements. Our main empirical analysis aims to gauge the influence of financial investors’ positions on both the level and the volatility of futures prices. The Granger-causality tests suggest that speculative investments usually follow – rather than precede - variations in futures returns. Employing a GARCH model, we find that the activity of money managers tends to be associated with lower volatility of futures returns, while that of swap dealers is sometimes followed by higher price variations.

The Role of Financial Investments in Agricultural Commodity Derivatives Markets

This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index investments (swap dealers) have gained importance since the mid-2000s. However, traditional financial market participants (money managers) still show the stronger (simultaneous) correlation with price movements. Our main empirical analysis aims to gauge the influence of financial investorsi?½ positions on both the level and the volatility of futures prices. The Granger-causality tests suggest that speculative investments usually follow i?½ rather than precede - variations in futures returns. Employing a GARCH model, we find that the activity of money managers tends to be associated with lower volatility of futures returns, while that of swap dealers is sometimes followed by higher price variations.

The role of financial investments in agricultural commodity derivatives markets

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