The moment magnitude (Mw) 5.5 earthquake that struck South Korea in November 2017 was one of the largest and most damaging events in that country over the past century. Its proximity to an enhanced geothermal system site, where high-pressure hydraulic injection had been performed during the previous 2 years, raises the possibility that this earthquake was anthropogenic. We have combined seismological and geodetic analyses to characterize the mainshock and its largest aftershocks, constrain the geometry of this seismic sequence, and shed light on its causal factors. According to our analysis, it seems plausible that the occurrence of this earthquake was influenced by the aforementioned industrial activities. Finally, we found that the earthquake transferred static stress to larger nearby faults, potentially increasing the seismic hazard in the area.

/pdf/the-november-2017-mw-5-5-pohang-earthquake-a-possible-case-3oleaqfo4s.pdf

The November 2017 Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake: A possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea

We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosita Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.

/pdf/the-new-italian-seismic-hazard-model-mps19-4z9bzsxhqg.pdf

The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is generally recognized as the rational method to quantify the seismic threat. Classical formulation of PSHA goes back to the second half of the twentieth century, but its implementation can still be demanding for engineers dealing with practical applications. Moreover, in the last years, a number of developments of PSHA have been introduced; e.g., vector-valued and advanced ground motion intensity measure (IM) hazard, the inclusion of the effect of aftershocks in single-site hazard assessment, and multi-site analysis requiring the characterization of random fields of cross-correlated IMs. Although software to carry out PSHA has been available since quite some time, generally, it does not feature a user-friendly interface and does not embed most of the recent methodologies relevant from the earthquake engineering perspective. These are the main motivations behind the development of the practice-oriented software presented herein, namely REgionAl, Single-SitE and Scenario-based Seismic hazard analysis (REASSESS V2.0). In the paper, the seismic hazard assessments REASSESS enables are discussed, along with the implemented algorithms and the models/databases embedded in this version of the software. Illustrative applications exploit the potential of the tool, which is available at http://wpage.unina.it/iuniervo/doc_en/REASSESS.htm
 .

REASSESS V2.0: software for single- and multi-site probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Since August 2016, central Italy has been struck by one of the most important seismic sequences ever recorded in the country. In this study, a strong‐motion data set, consisting of nearly 10,000 waveforms, has been analyzed to gather insights about the main features of ground motion, in terms of regional variability, shaking intensity, and near‐source effects. In particular, the shake maps from the three main events in the sequence have been calculated to evaluate the distribution of shaking at a regional scale, and a residual analysis has been performed, aimed at interpreting the strong‐motion parameters as functions of source distance, azimuth, and local site conditions. Particular attention has been dedicated to near‐source effects (i.e., hanging wall/footwall, forward‐directivity, or fling‐step effects). Finally, ground‐motion intensities in the near‐source area have been discussed with respect to the values used for structural design. In general, the areas of maximum shaking appear to reflect, primarily, rupture complexity on the finite faults. Large ground‐motion variability is observed along the Apennine direction (northwest–southeast) that can be attributed to source‐directivity effects, especially evident in the case of small‐magnitude aftershocks. Amplifications are observed in correspondence to intramountain basins, fluvial valleys, and the loose deposits along the Adriatic coast. Near‐source ground motions exhibit hanging‐wall effects, forward‐directivity pulses, and permanent displacement.

The Central Italy Seismic Sequence between August and December 2016: Analysis of Strong‐Motion Observations

We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989–1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon’s map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

/pdf/application-driven-ground-motion-prediction-equation-for-4aqzf6oeoa.pdf

Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

Presented herein is an updated model for empirical prediction of 5 %-damped elastic response spectra in the period range 0–10 s, peak ground acceleration and velocity, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records. The predictive model features saturation of the shaking parameters with both magnitude $$M_{W}$$
 and distance $$R_{ RUP }$$
 , magnitude-dependent distance attenuation, alternative parameterisations of the amplification effects due to local site conditions (based either on ground types or $$V_{S,30}$$
 ) and corrective terms for style-of-faulting. The calibration dataset comprises more than $$1{,}880\times 2$$
 orthogonal horizontal accelerometer records with $$R_{ RUP }< 150$$
  km from 98 global earthquakes with $$4.5\le M_{W}\le 7.9$$
 . The processing technique applied to the acceleration data optimises the reliability of the predictions at long periods, as required by displacement-based design techniques. Developed independently of the recent NGA-West2 and RESORCE-based models, the new predictive tool effectively contributes to capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with the prediction of seismic shaking levels for engineering applications.

/pdf/updated-predictive-equations-for-broadband-0-01-10-s-3ooc20b6mf.pdf

Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records

Offshore wind turbines are subject not only to varying wind conditions during their lifetime, but also sea conditions. Therefore, in addition to wind speed, other sea-related quantities need to be considered to characterize a specific installation site. International standards suggest that, at a minimum, significant wave height, peak spectral period and wind/wave misalignment must be considered. In order to have a statistically significant description of the potential installation site, the long-term distributions of the three environmental variables must be determined. In this context, the objectives of the present work are twofold: firstly, to demonstrate the procedure trough which environmental conditions including wind and wave information can be derived using open-source tools. Secondly, an exemplary dataset is provided. The dataset is used both do demonstrate the procedure and provided as a ready-made example for use in future studies. The provided dataset is used in the EU-funded Horizon 2020 project FLOATECH.

https://zenodo.org/record/7547997/files/Papi_2022_J._Phys.__Conf._Ser._2385_012117.pdf

Derivation of Met-Ocean Conditions for the Simulation of Floating Wind Turbines: a European case study

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Updated predictive equations for broadband (0.01–10 s) horizontal response spectra and peak ground motions, based on a global dataset of digital acceleration records

Derivation of Met-Ocean Conditions for the Simulation of Floating Wind Turbines: a European case study