Aart Kraay

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show how to incorporate prior uncertainty about the validity of the exclusion restriction into linear IV models, and explore the consequences for inference, showing that moderate prior uncertainty can lead to a substantial loss of precision in estimates of structural parameters.

TL;DR: The authors used a large cross-country dataset to empirically examine factors associated with sovereign defaults on external private creditors and expropriation of foreign direct investments in developing countries since the 1970s.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to systematically document the partial correlations between disaggregated indicators and several closely-related outcome variables of interest using two leading datasets.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project.