Many problems in the experimental estimation of parameters for models can be solved through use of the likelihood ratio test. Applications of the likelihood ratio, with particular attention to photon counting experiments, are discussed. The procedures presented solve a greater range of problems than those currently in use, yet are no more difficult to apply. The procedures are proved analytically, and examples from current problems in astronomy are discussed.

Parameter estimation in astronomy through application of the likelihood ratio. [satellite data analysis techniques

Although we are nearing a consensus that most ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) below 1041 erg s−1 represent stellar mass black holes accreting in a super-Eddington ‘ultraluminous’ accretion state, little is yet established of the physics of this extreme accretion mode. Here, we use a combined X-ray spectral and timing analysis of an XMM-Newton sample of ULXs to investigate this new accretion regime. We start by suggesting an empirical classification scheme that separates ULXs into three classes based on the spectral morphologies observed by Gladstone et al.: a singly peaked broadened disc class, and two-component hard ultraluminous and soft ultraluminous regimes, with the spectra of the latter two classes dominated by the harder and softer component, respectively. We find that at the lowest luminosities (LX < 3 × 1039 erg s−1) the ULX population is dominated by sources with broadened disc spectra, whilst ULXs with two-component spectra are seen almost exclusively at higher luminosities, suggestive of a distinction between ∼Eddington and super-Eddington accretion modes. We find high levels of fractional variability are limited to ULXs with soft ultraluminous spectra, and a couple of the broadened disc sources. Furthermore, the variability in these sources is strongest at high energies, suggesting it originates in the harder of the two spectral components. We argue that these properties are consistent with current models of super-Eddington emission, where a massive radiatively driven wind forms a funnel-like geometry around the central regions of the accretion flow. As the wind provides the soft spectral component this suggests that inclination is the key determinant in the observed two-component X-ray spectra, which is very strongly supported by the variability results if this originates due to clumpy material at the edge of the wind intermittently obscuring our line-of-sight to the spectrally hard central regions of the ULX. The pattern of spectral variability with luminosity in two ULXs that straddle the hard/soft ultraluminous regime boundary is consistent with the wind increasing at higher accretion rates, and thus narrowing the opening angle of the funnel. Hence, this work suggests that most ULXs can be explained as stellar mass black holes accreting at and above the Eddington limit, with their observed characteristics dominated by two variables: accretion rate and inclination.

/pdf/the-ultraluminous-state-revisited-fractional-variability-and-531cmx0zhk.pdf

The ultraluminous state revisited: fractional variability and spectral shape as diagnostics of super-Eddington accretion

Ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs) with luminosities lying between ∼3 × 1039 and 2 × 1040 erg s−1 represent a contentious sample of objects as their brightness, together with a lack of unambiguous mass estimates for the vast majority of the central objects, leads to a degenerate scenario where the accretor could be a stellar remnant (black hole or neutron star) or intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH). Recent, high-quality observations imply that the presence of IMBHs in the majority of these objects is unlikely unless the accretion flow somehow deviates strongly from expectation based on objects with known masses. On the other hand, physically motivated models for supercritical inflows can re-create the observed X-ray spectra and their evolution, although have been lacking a robust explanation for their variability properties. In this paper, we include the effect of a partially inhomogeneous wind that imprints variability on to the X-ray emission via two distinct methods. The model is heavily dependent on both inclination to the line of sight and mass accretion rate, resulting in a series of qualitative and semiquantitative predictions. We study the time-averaged spectra and variability of a sample of well-observed ULXs, finding that the source behaviours can be explained by our model in both individual cases as well as across the entire sample, specifically in the trend of hardness-variability power. We present the covariance spectra for these sources for the first time, which shed light on the correlated variability and issues associated with modelling broad ULX spectra.

/pdf/a-spectral-timing-model-for-ulxs-in-the-supercritical-regime-56nj5u55ln.pdf

A spectral-timing model for ULXs in the supercritical regime

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions-such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution-can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016-2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

Blazar spectral variability as explained by a twisted inhomogeneous jet

We present results from a 47 ks observation of the Andromeda galaxy, M31, using the High-Resolution Camera of the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. We detect 142 point sources spanning three orders of magnitude in luminosity, from $L_X = 2\times 10^{35} \rm erg s^{-1}$ to $L_X = 2\times 10^{38} \rm erg s^{-1}$ in the 0.1-10 keV band. The X-ray source location accuracy is better than $1\arcsec$ in the central regions of the galaxy. One source lies within $1.3\arcsec$ of SN 1885 but does not coincide with the UV absorption feature identified as the supernova remnant. However, there is an optical transient, which is likely an optical nova, at the location of the X-ray source. There is a weak source, $L_X \sim 4 \times 10^{36} \rm erg cm^{2} s^{-1}$, coincident with the nucleus of M31, and 14 sources coincident with globular clusters. 
Our observation has very high efficiency down to luminosities of $1.5\times 10^{36} \rm erg s^{-1}$ for sources within $5\arcmin$ of the nucleus. Comparing with a ROSAT observation made 11 years earlier, we find that $0.46 \pm 0.26$ of the sources with $L_X > 5 \times 10^{36} \rm erg s^{-1}$ are variable. We find no evidence for X-ray pulsars in this region, indicating that the population is likely dominated by low-mass X-ray binaries. The source density radial profile follows a powerlaw distribution with an exponent of $1.25 \pm 0.10$ and is inconsistent with the optical surface brightness profile. The x-ray point source luminosity function is well fitted by a differential broken powerlaw with a break at a luminosity of $(4.5^{+1.1}_{-2.2}) \times 10^{37} \rm erg s^{-1}$. The luminosity function is consistent with a model of an aging population of X-ray binaries.

A Chandra High-Resolution Camera Observation of X-Ray Point Sources in M31

The most powerful sources among the blazar family are MeV blazars. Often detected at $z>2$, they usually display high X- and \gm-ray luminosities, larger-than-average jet powers and black hole masses $\gtrsim 10^9 M_{\odot}$. In the present work we perform a multiwavelength study of three high redshift blazars: 3FGL J0325.5+2223 ($z=2.06$), 3FGL J0449.0+1121 ($z= 2.15$), and 3FGL J0453.2$-$2808 ($z=2.56$), analysing quasi simultaneous data from GROND, \swift-UVOT and XRT, \nustar, and \fermi-LAT. Our main focus is on the hard X-ray band recently unveiled by \nustar~(3$-$79 keV) where these objects show a hard spectrum which enables us to constrain the inverse Compton peak and the jet power. We found that all three targets resemble the most powerful blazars, with the synchrotron peak located in the sub-millimeter range and the inverse Compton peak in the MeV range, and therefore belong to the MeV blazar class. Using a simple one zone leptonic emission model to reproduce the spectral energy distributions, we conclude that a simple combination of synchrotron and accretion disk emission reproduces the infrared-optical spectra while the X-ray to \gm-ray part is well reproduced by the inverse Compton scattering of low energy photons supplied by the broad line region. The black hole masses for each of the three sources are calculated to be $\gtrsim 4 \times 10^{8} M_{\odot}$. The three studied sources have jet power at the level of, or beyond, the accretion luminosity.

/pdf/high-redshift-blazars-through-nustar-eyes-xbyim7w43l.pdf

High-redshift blazars through NuSTAR eyes

Context. We seek clarification of the nature of X-ray sources detected in M 31. Here we focus on CXOM31 J004253.1+411422, the brightness of which suggests that it belongs to the class of ultraluminous X-ray sources. Aims. We determine the X-ray properties of sources detected in the XMM-Newton / Chandra monitoring program. We investigate spectral properties and search for periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations. Methods. A multicomponent model was applied to the spectra obtained from XMM-Newton data to evaluate the relative contributions from thermal and nonthermal emission. The time dependence of this ratio was evaluated over a period of forty days. We simultaneously fit data from XMM-Newton EPIC-pn, MOS1, and MOS2 detectors with (nonthermal) powerlaw and (thermal) multicolored blackbody. Results. The X-ray spectrum is best fit by the combination of a thermal component with kT  ~ 1 keV and a powerlaw component with a photon index of approximately 2.6. From combined analysis of Chandra , Swift , and XMM-Newton data, the unabsorbed total luminosity of this source decreases from  ~3.8 × 10 39  erg s -1 in the first observation to  ~0.5 × 10 39  erg s -1 over a period of three months. The decay closely follows an exponential decline with a time constant of 32 days. The source spectrum evolves significantly, exhibiting a faster decline of the thermal component. We do not find evidence of any significant temporal features in the power density spectrum. The presence of a thermal component at kT  ~ 1 keV in conjunction with a nonthermal high-energy tail, is also consistent with spectral properties of other ULXs in the “high state”. Conclusions. Our analysis indicates that the underlying source of this first ULX in M 31 is a black hole of mass, M  ≥ 13 M ⊙ , accreting near the Eddington limit, that underwent a transient outburst followed by an exponential decay reminiscent of transients associated with galactic X-ray novae.

CXO M31 J004253.1+411422: The First Ultra-luminous X-ray Transient In M 31

/pdf/high-redshift-blazars-through-nustar-eyes-1197m8ii3b.pdf

High-redshift blazars through nustar eyes

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High-redshift blazars through NuSTAR eyes

CXO M31 J004253.1+411422: The First Ultra-luminous X-ray Transient In M 31

High-redshift blazars through nustar eyes