Abstract Recent studies suggest that climate change will lead to the local extinction of many tree species from large areas during this century, affecting the functioning and ecosystem services of many forests. This study reports on projected carbon losses due to the assumed local climate change-driven extinction of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from Zala County, South-Western Hungary, where the species grows at the xeric limit of its distribution. The losses were calculated as a difference between carbon stocks in climate change scenarios assuming an exponentially increasing forest decline over time, and those in a baseline scenario assuming no climate change. In the climate change scenarios, three different sets of forest management adaptation measures were studied: (1) only harvesting damaged stands, (2) additionally salvaging dead trees that died due to climate change, and (3) replacing, at an increasing rate over time, beech with sessile oak (Quercus petraea Matt. Lieb.) after final harvest. Projections were made using the open access carbon accounting model CASMOFOR based on modeling or assuming effects of climate change on mortality, tree growth, root-to-shoot ratio and decomposition rates. Results demonstrate that, if beech disappears from the region as projected by the end of the century, over 80% of above-ground biomass carbon, and over 60% of the carbon stocks of all pools (excluding soils) of the forests will be lost by 2100. Such emission rates on large areas may have a discernible positive feedback on climate change, and can only partially be offset by the forest management adaptation measures.

Projected effects of climate change on the carbon stocks of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in Zala County, Hungary

The climate is changing, yet to which degree and in what pattern remains uncertain in many areas. In forest science, mainly impacts of long-term mean changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are studied. This paper therefore presents a sensitivity analysis to determine the importance of accounting for variability changes. A 10*10 matrix of different mean annual temperatures and precipitation sums is set up, covering the temperate forest zone of Europe, and the current level of several ecosystem services (ES) is calculated. Subsequently, mean and variability of temperature and precipitation distributions are changed in different steps, and new ES levels calculated. The results show that for the study of climate change impacts on forest ES, climate parameter variability is of secondary importance. The trends are well represented with scenarios of mean climate parameter changes only; however, on moisture-limited and heat-stressed sites impacts of changes in variability gain in importance. Most ...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/21513732.2014.939719

The importance of climate variability changes for future levels of tree-based forest ecosystem services

The global climate is currently warming and this trend is expected to continue towards an even warmer world, associated partly with drastic shifts in precipitation regimes (IPCC 2007). The global temperature has been warming by ca. 0.6°C (±0.2°C) during the 20th century (IPCC 2001), but the land areas have shown a higher increase in temperature within the same period. Here, we report on the current state of the art in climate model projections for Europe, with an outlook to the soon available 5th IPCC assessment report.

Climate change scenarios to 2100 and implications for forest management

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Climate change scenarios to 2100 and implications for forest management