This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN).

/pdf/skillful-long-range-prediction-of-european-and-north-14ytmc1fc2.pdf

Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters

This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.

Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Amongst other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components are in companion papers), and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present-day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter timescales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2-AO) which was the submission to CMIP5.

In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2-AO, many aspects of the present-day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extra-tropical variability and top-of-atmosphere & surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017MS001115

The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations

Uncertainty in ocean analysis methods and deficiencies in the observing system are major obstacles for the reliable reconstruction of the past ocean climate. The variety of existing ocean reanalyses is exploited in a multi-reanalysis ensemble to improve the ocean state estimation and to gauge uncertainty levels. The ensemble-based analysis of signal-to-noise ratio allows the identification of ocean characteristics for which the estimation is robust (such as tropical mixed-layer-depth, upper ocean heat content), and where large uncertainty exists (deep ocean, Southern Ocean, sea ice thickness, salinity), providing guidance for future enhancement of the observing and data assimilation systems.

/pdf/the-ocean-reanalyses-intercomparison-project-ora-ip-3bmmd8spp0.pdf

The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP)

 Versions 6 and 7 of the UK Global Ocean configuration (known as GO6 and GO7)
will form the ocean components of the Met Office GC31 coupled model and
UKESM1 earth system model to be used in CMIP6 1 simulations The
label “GO6” refers to a traceable hierarchy of three model configurations
at nominal 1 , 1∕4 and 1 / 12 ∘ resolutions The GO6 configurations
are described in detail with particular focus on aspects which have been
updated since the previous version (GO5) Results of 30-year forced ocean-ice
integrations with the 1 / 4 ∘ model are presented, in which GO6 is
coupled to the GSI81 sea ice configuration and forced with
CORE2 2 fluxes GO6-GSI81 shows an overall improved
simulation compared to GO5-GSI50, especially in the Southern Ocean where
there are more realistic summertime mixed layer depths, a reduced
near-surface warm and saline biases, and an improved simulation of sea ice
The main drivers of the improvements in the Southern Ocean simulation are
tuning of the vertical and isopycnal mixing parameters Selected results from
the full hierarchy of three resolutions are shown Although the same forcing
is applied, the three models show large-scale differences in the near-surface
circulation and in the short-term adjustment of the overturning circulation
The GO7 configuration is identical to the GO6 1 / 4 ∘ configuration
except that the cavities under the ice shelves are opened Opening the ice
shelf cavities has a local impact on temperature and salinity biases on the
Antarctic shelf with some improvement in the biases in the Weddell Sea

/pdf/uk-global-ocean-go6-and-go7-a-traceable-hierarchy-of-model-5boe564r2p.pdf

UK Global Ocean GO6 and GO7: a traceable hierarchy of model resolutions

. The Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) is an operational ocean analysis and forecast system run daily at the Met Office. FOAM provides modelling capability in both deep ocean and coastal shelf sea regimes using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model as its dynamical core. The FOAM Deep Ocean suite produces analyses and 7-day forecasts of ocean tracers, currents and sea ice for the global ocean at 1/4° resolution. Satellite and in situ observations of temperature, salinity, sea level anomaly and sea ice concentration are assimilated by FOAM each day over a 48 h observation window. The FOAM Deep Ocean configurations have recently undergone a major upgrade which has involved the implementation of a new variational, first guess at appropriate time (FGAT) 3D-Var, assimilation scheme (NEMOVAR); coupling to a different, multi-thickness-category, sea ice model (CICE); the use of coordinated ocean-ice reference experiment (CORE) bulk formulae to specify the surface boundary condition; and an increased vertical resolution for the global model. In this paper the new FOAM Deep Ocean system is introduced and details of the recent changes are provided. Results are presented from 2-year reanalysis integrations of the Global FOAM configuration including an assessment of short-range ocean forecast accuracy. Comparisons are made with both the previous FOAM system and a non-assimilative FOAM system. Assessments reveal considerable improvements in the new system to the near-surface ocean and sea ice fields. However there is some degradation to sub-surface tracer fields and in equatorial regions which highlights specific areas upon which to focus future improvements.

/pdf/recent-development-of-the-met-office-operational-ocean-357a3ncvcl.pdf

Recent development of the Met Office operational ocean forecasting system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecasts

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Recent development of the Met Office operational ocean forecasting system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecasts