We demonstrate that highly accurate joint redshift-stellar mass probability distribution functions (PDFs) can be obtained using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm, even with few photometric bands available. As an example, we use the Dark Energy Survey (DES), combined with the COSMOS2015 catalogue for redshifts and stellar masses. We build two ML models: one containing deep photometry in the griz bands, and the second reflecting the photometric scatter present in the main DES survey, with carefully constructed representative training data in each case. We validate our joint PDFs for 10 699 test galaxies by utilizing the copula probability integral transform and the Kendall distribution function, and their univariate counterparts to validate the marginals. Benchmarked against a basic set-up of the template-fitting code bagpipes, our ML-based method outperforms template fitting on all of our predefined performance metrics. In addition to accuracy, the RF is extremely fast, able to compute joint PDFs for a million galaxies in just under 6 min with consumer computer hardware. Such speed enables PDFs to be derived in real time within analysis codes, solving potential storage issues. As part of this work we have developed galpro1, a highly intuitive and efficient python package to rapidly generate multivariate PDFs on-the-fly. galpro is documented and available for researchers to use in their cosmology and galaxy evolution studies.

pdf/a-machine-learning-approach-to-galaxy-properties-joint-7dvpac22dt.pdf

A machine learning approach to galaxy properties: Joint redshift-stellar mass probability distributions with Random Forest

The discovery of the first strongly lensed (μ ≈ 50) quasar at z > 6 (J0439+1634) represents a breakthrough in our understanding of the early universe. We derive the theoretical consequences of the new discovery. We predict that the observed population of z > 6 quasars should contain many sources with magnifications μ 10 and with image separations below the resolution threshold. Additionally, current selection criteria could have missed a substantial population of lensed z > 6 quasars, due to the contamination of the drop-out photometric bands by lens galaxies. We argue that this predicted population of lensed z > 6 quasars would be misclassified and mixed up with low-z galaxies. We quantify the fraction of undetected quasars as a function of the slope of the bright end of the quasar luminosity function, β. For β 3.6, we predict that the undetected lensed quasars could reach half of the population, whereas for β 4.5 the vast majority of the z > 6 quasar population is lensed and still undetected. This would significantly affect the z > 6 quasar luminosity function and inferred black hole mass distributions, with profound implications for the ultraviolet, X-ray, and infrared cosmic backgrounds and the growth of early quasars.

Most Lensed Quasars at z > 6 are Missed by Current Surveys

The average stellar mass (Mstar) of high-mass galaxies (Mstar > 3e11 Msun) is expected to grow by ~30% since z~1, largely through ongoing mergers that are also invoked to explain the observed increase in galaxy sizes. Direct evidence for the corresponding growth in stellar mass has been elusive, however, in part because the volumes sampled by previous redshift surveys have been too small to yield reliable statistics. In this work, we make use of the Stripe 82 Massive Galaxy Catalog to build a mass-limited sample of 41,770 galaxies (Mstar > 1.6e11) with optical to near-IR photometry and a large fraction (>55%) of spectroscopic redshifts. Our sample spans 139 square degrees, significantly larger than most previous efforts. After accounting for a number of potential systematic errors, including the effects of Mstar scatter, we measure galaxy stellar mass functions over 0.3 < z < 0.65 and detect no growth in the typical Mstar of massive galaxies with an uncertainty of 9%. This confidence level is dominated by uncertainties in the star formation history assumed for Mstar estimates, although our inability to characterize low surface-brightness outskirts may be the most important limitation of our study. Even among these high-mass galaxies, we find evidence for differential evolution when splitting the sample by recent star formation (SF) activity. While low-SF systems appear to become completely passive, we find a mostly sub-dominant population of galaxies with residual, but low rates of star formation (~1 Msun/yr) number density does not evolve. Interestingly, these galaxies become more prominent at higher Mstar, representing ~10% of all galaxies at Mstar ~ 1e12 Msun and perhaps dominating at even larger masses.

/pdf/the-stripe-82-massive-galaxy-project-iii-a-lack-of-growth-iwwwa1b3l9.pdf

The Stripe 82 Massive Galaxy Project - III. A lack of growth among massive galaxies

We compare the observed galaxy stellar mass distributions in the redshift range with expectations of the cold ΛCDM and warm ΛWDM dark matter models, and obtain the warm dark matter cut-off wavenumber: . This result is in agreement with the independent measurements with spiral galaxy rotation curves, confirms that kfs is due to warm dark matter free-streaming, and is consistent with the scenario of dark matter with no freeze-in and no freeze-out. Detailed properties of warm dark matter can be derived from kfs. The data disfavors the ΛCDM model.

/pdf/cold-or-warm-dark-matter-a-study-of-galaxy-stellar-mass-14hzybp5lp.pdf

Cold or Warm Dark Matter?: A Study of Galaxy Stellar Mass Distributions


 The European Space Agency is studying two large-class missions bound to operate in the decade of the 30s, and aiming at investigating the most energetic and violent phenomena in the Universe. Athena is poised to study the physical conditions of baryons locked in large-scale structures from the epoch of their formation, as well as to yield an accurate census of accreting super-massive black holes down to the epoch of reionization; LISA will extend the hunt for Gravitational Wave (GW) events to the hitherto unexplored mHz regime. We discuss in this paper the science that their concurrent operation could yield, and present possible Athena observational strategies. We focus on Super-Massive (M$\lesssim 10^7\, \rm {M_\odot }$) Black Hole Mergers (SMBHMs), potentially accessible to Athena up to z ∼ 2. The simultaneous measurement of their electro-magnetic (EM) and GW signals may enable unique experiments in the domains of astrophysics, fundamental physics, and cosmography, such as the magneto-hydrodynamics of fluid flows in a rapidly variable space-time, the formation of coronae and jets in Active Galactic Nuclei, and the measurement of the speed of GW, among others. Key to achieve these breakthrough results will be the LISA capability of locating a SMBHM event with an error box comparable to, or better than the field-of-view of the Athena Wide Field Imager (≃ 0.4 deg2) and Athena capability to slew fast to detect the source during the inspiral phase and the post-merger phase. Together, the two observatories will open in principle the exciting possibility of truly concurrent EM and GW studies of the SMBHMs

/pdf/chasing-super-massive-black-hole-merging-events-with-athena-2uu5kirs.pdf

Chasing super-massive black hole merging events with Athena and LISA

We present the first study of the evolution of the galaxy luminosity and stellar-mass functions (GLF and GSMF) carried out by the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We describe the COMMODORE galaxy catalogue selected from Science Verification images. This catalogue is made of $\sim 4\times 10^{6}$ galaxies at $0<z\lesssim1.3$ over a sky area of $\sim155\ {\rm sq. \ deg}$ with ${\it i}$-band limiting magnitude ${\it i}=23\ {\rm mag}$. Such characteristics are unprecedented for galaxy catalogues and they enable us to study the evolution of GLF and GSMF at $0<z<1$ homogeneously with the same statistically-rich data-set and free of cosmic variance effects. The aim of this study is twofold: i) we want to test our method based on the use of photometric-redshift probability density functions against literature results obtained with spectroscopic redshifts; ii) we want to shed light on the way galaxies build up their masses over cosmic time. We find that both the ${\it i}$-band galaxy luminosity and stellar mass functions are characterised by a double-Schechter shape at $z<0.2$. Both functions agree well with those based on spectroscopic redshifts. The DES GSMF agrees especially with those measured for the GAlaxy Mass Assembly and the PRism MUlti-object Survey out to $z\sim1$. At $0.2<z<1$, we find the ${\it i}$-band luminosity and stellar-mass densities respectively to be constant ($\rho_{\rm L}\propto (1+z)^{-0.12\pm0.11}$) and decreasing ($\rho_{\rm Mstar}\propto (1+z)^{-0.5\pm0.1}$) with $z$. This indicates that, while at higher redshift galaxies have less stellar mass, their luminosities do not change substantially because of their younger and brighter stellar populations. Finally, we also find evidence for a top-down mass-dependent evolution of the GSMF.

Evolution of Galaxy Luminosity and Stellar-Mass Functions since $z=1$ with the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification Data

We present the first study of the evolution of the galaxy luminosity and stellar-mass functions (GLF and GSMF) carried out by the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We describe the COMMODORE galaxy catalogue selected from Science Verification images. This catalogue is made of $\\sim 4\\times 10^{6}$ galaxies at $0<z\\lesssim1.3$ over a sky area of $\\sim155\\ {\\rm sq. \\ deg}$ with ${\\it i}$-band limiting magnitude ${\\it i}=23\\ {\\rm mag}$. Such characteristics are unprecedented for galaxy catalogues and they enable us to study the evolution of GLF and GSMF at $0<z<1$ homogeneously with the same statistically-rich data-set and free of cosmic variance effects. The aim of this study is twofold: i) we want to test our method based on the use of photometric-redshift probability density functions against literature results obtained with spectroscopic redshifts; ii) we want to shed light on the way galaxies build up their masses over cosmic time. We find that both the ${\\it i}$-band galaxy luminosity and stellar mass functions are characterised by a double-Schechter shape at $z<0.2$. Both functions agree well with those based on spectroscopic redshifts. The DES GSMF agrees especially with those measured for the GAlaxy Mass Assembly and the PRism MUlti-object Survey out to $z\\sim1$. At $0.2<z<1$, we find the ${\\it i}$-band luminosity and stellar-mass densities respectively to be constant ($\\rho_{\\rm L}\\propto (1+z)^{-0.12\\pm0.11}$) and decreasing ($\\rho_{\\rm Mstar}\\propto (1+z)^{-0.5\\pm0.1}$) with $z$. This indicates that, while at higher redshift galaxies have less stellar mass, their luminosities do not change substantially because of their younger and brighter stellar populations. Finally, we also find evidence for a top-down mass-dependent evolution of the GSMF.

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Evolution of Galaxy Luminosity and Stellar-Mass Functions since $z=1$ with the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification Data

Evolution of Galaxy Luminosity and Stellar-Mass Functions since $z=1$ with the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification Data